000 AXNT20 KNHC 222335 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 10N15W TO 9N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N29W TO 8N41W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 15W-27W... AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 15-20 KT E TO SE FLOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN N OF 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 89W-95W AND FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-87W AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS LOCATED ACROSS SW TEXAS AND EXTENDING TO NORTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXTENDING TO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 25N84W TO 25N70W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT IS OVER SW TEXAS TO BE ALONG THE COAST ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF WATERS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER- LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N87W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N65W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 62W-71W AFFECTING ALSO THE ISLANDS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. TO THE S...THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS PANAMA...COSTA RICA AND THEIR ADJACENT WATERS S OF 11N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING W. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SE OF PUERTO RICO CONTINUES DRIFTING W. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N48W TO 25N67W AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N67W TO 25N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 74W- 76W. A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N44W IS SUPPORTED AT UPPER LEVELS BY A BROAD RIDGE AND KEEPING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC CONVECTION FREE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 54W-61W. TO THE E...A 1001 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 31N12W ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS AND NW AFRICA AS WELL AS THEIR ADJACENT WATERS E OF 17W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA