000 AXNT20 KNHC 201158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N18W AND 6N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N24W TO 6N38W AND 7N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO FROM 17N TO 25N...ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER... TO 26N94W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INLAND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH... KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KATP...KEIR...AND KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N63W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N62W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 8N TO 25N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE COAST OF GUYANA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N64W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 16N87W AT THE HONDURAS COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS...BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND LAND. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY FROM 12N TO 18N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N IN COLOMBIA TO 11N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W IN THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE APPEARS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BETWEEN THE 14N63W CYCLONIC CENTER AND JAMAICA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BEING TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W AND ANDROS ISLAND...CURVING ACROSS CUBA ALONG 22N81W...TO 20N84W...AND TO NORTH CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 26N71W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...TO 16N87W AT THE HONDURAS COAST. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS... BETWEEN 85W AND 88W IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 83W AND LAND. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 12N32W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO...THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 21N20W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N45W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 70W...AWAY FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N60W 29N67W... BEYOND 23N80W IN CUBA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT