000 AXNT20 KNHC 200604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 8N17W AND 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO 7N36W AND 5N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE TROUGH REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO ALONG 100W...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM A SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER... TO 27N93W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INLAND INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N62W IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 15N62W CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ADJACENT SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 63W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE WEST OF A LINE THAT CURVES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 14N81W...TO COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY FROM 12N TO 18N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.29 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 87W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS TO THE WEST OF THE COMPARATIVELY LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND 15N62W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FAIR SKIES ARE PRESENT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE PRESENT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...BEING TO THE EAST OF A 20N80W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND IT CONTINUES FROM 29N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W...CURVING ACROSS CUBA ALONG 22N80W...TO 20N84W...AND TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N66W...TO 26N78W IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... CURVING TO 16N86W IN HONDURAS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N33W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO SOUTHERN MOROCCO. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN MOROCCO...THROUGH THE WESTERN SAHARA...TO 20N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 23W. A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N44W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 25W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT