000 AXNT20 KNHC 191805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N30W 6N40W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 17W-28W AND FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 30W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH CENTERS OVER THE SE CONUS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE THE GULF WITH NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT...INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW AND SE GULF...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE PASSAGE OF A FORMER COLD FRONT NOW ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES COVER MOST OF THE BASIN S OF 28N BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER- LEVEL MOIST AIR STREAMING NE FROM THE E PACIFIC WATERS. HOWEVER...DRY STABLE AIR AT THE LOWER-LEVELS SUPPORT STABILITY AND FAIR WEATHER IN THIS REGION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SE CONUS REMAINS STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFTS NE FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THEN ALONG 21N80W 19N85W TO NE GUATEMALA NEAR 15N88W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED ALONG 19N83W TO NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORT HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 81W. ON THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COASTLINE FROM SOUTHERN NICARAGUA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NW BASIN BY THU NIGHT TO FRI MORNING. SHOWERS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THAT PERIOD. HISPANIOLA... DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...THUS ENHANCING SOME SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N65W SW TO 25N74W TO NORTHERN CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF IT. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING SW TO 40W...THUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N13W TO 21N22W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 18N28W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 20N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N44W. THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THEN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MERGES WITH IT TO DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BASIN SAT MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR