000 AXNT20 KNHC 191110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 11N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N20W TO 7N30W 5N39W 3N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W...AND FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N67W...JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 29N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W... ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO BELIZE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 27N76W... AND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO...FROM 27N SOUTHWARD. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGVX... KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KATP...KIPN.... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL PLAINS FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER SOUTH FLORIDA...FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD TO AND INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 66W EASTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 17N58W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N66W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 25N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 84W/85W FROM 15N IN HONDURAS TO 20N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA NORTHWARD TO 20N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA-TO- NORTHERN GUATEMALA COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF 12N72W 14N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.74 IN CURACAO...AND 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE- SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...AND IT WILL END UP ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE THAT WILL RUN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH 32N20W TO 24N25W 20N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N30W TO 19N48W ...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N58W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 17N58W TO 10N66W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...TO THE WESTERN CANARY ISLANDS...TO 24N24W AND TO 23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 28N16W TO 24N19W...PASSING RIGHT THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 70W EASTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N45W...TO 28N54W 26N60W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CENTRAL CUBA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT