000 AXNT20 KNHC 190602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N19W TO 8N30W 6N40W 6N50W...AND INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO 30N73W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF CUBA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... THROUGH NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N64W 30N69W 28N72W 26N75W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGVX... KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KATP...KIPN...AND KIKT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES. LIGHT RAIN IS IN NAPLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 66W EASTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N84W 19N85W 16N85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...INCLUDING IN SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...AND IN HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA-TO-NORTHERN GUATEMALA COLD FRONT CUTS THROUGH THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF 12N72W 14N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.74 IN CURACAO...AND 0.08 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE- SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HONDURAS...AND IT WILL END UP ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE THAT WILL RUN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH 32N22W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N22W AND 25N24W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N24W TO 23N46W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N57W...EVENTUALLY TO 11N63W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N13W...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N20W AND 23N32W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N15W 28N19W 21N25W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND FROM 66W EASTWARD IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N44W...TO 29N57W 25N65W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT