000 AXNT20 KNHC 182352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N28W 7N38W 6N44W TO NEAR 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE CONUS AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 18/2100 UTC IS MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 25N80W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE E OF LINE FROM S OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA ALONG 23N88W TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT INTO THE W ATLC REGION. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF THE FRONT S OF 27N LEAVING THE N GULF CLEAR THIS EVENING. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NE LOUISIANA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT THE GULF TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE NW GULF ON TONIGHT AND WED BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT AT 18/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA ALONG 21N85W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BEYOND 20N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N84W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST W OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N79W COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS E CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 80W TO THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE W OF THE COLD FRONT TO OVER CUBA...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 10N78W THROUGH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N82W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 78W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL CUBA TO N BELIZE BY WED MORNING BEFORE STALLING WED DISSIPATING BY THU. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING HISPANIOLA FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 18/2100 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W AND CONTINUES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO WELL BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W ALONG 27N74W TO BEYOND 32N66W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N24W ALONG 25N30W THEN W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N50W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N15W TO 25N30W THEN DISSIPATES ALONG 24N51W TO 27N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 26W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N45W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N63W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON THU AND DISSIPATE FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW