000 AXNT20 KNHC 181202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N83W TO 19N93W. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 15 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 10N20W AND 8N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 6N27W 5N31W AND 6N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W 6N20W 6N30W 8N40W 7N45W 9N50W 10N54W 9N60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N78W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 17N97W 21N100W 25N102W IN MEXICO. SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST IN THE 30S...IN DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...IN MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N73W 30N75W 29N77W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 71W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 29N TO 33N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO MEXICO AND GUATEMALA WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N76W 28N81W 24N86W AND 18N93W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ALSO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGUL... KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KVQT...KATP...KGRY...KDLP...KMDJ...KIPN... KIKT...AND KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO KEY WEST. RAIN IS IN THE CLOUDINESS FROM FORT MYERS SOUTHWARD. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...BECOMING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 80W WESTWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 80W EASTWARD. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN CUBA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 17N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF 12N68W 15N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N SOUTHWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 75W AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA SOUTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGE- SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...AND IT WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE THAT WILL RUN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 22N20W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N16W 28N21W 26N25W 23N29W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W 29N28W 24N34W 20N42W 17N50W AND 14N60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N30W 26N40W AND 26N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N21W 26N30W 25N40W 25N50W 27N55W 30N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO IS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N64W TO 26N70W... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT