000 AXNT20 KNHC 180604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 29N83W TO 19N93W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 16 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 14 FEET...HIGHEST NEAR 25N94W...ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N23W TO 7N34W 5N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...AND ENDING IN SOUTHERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 3N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N11W 7N30W 7N40W 9N50W 11N54W 11N60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W...THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE AT LEAST IN THE 30S IN MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N70W 30N73W 28N75W 27N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND INTO MEXICO AND GUATEMALA WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W 28N81W 23N86W 19N91W AND 16N93W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED ALSO IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KEMK...KHQI... KGBK...KGHB...KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...AND KMIS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO THE TAMPA-SAINT PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA...TO THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS...BECOMING EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 80W WESTWARD. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF 11N62W 13N70W 15N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS COLOMBIA/ PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...TO 10N BETWEEN 75W AND 86W. ...HISPANIOLA... A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N61W AND 21N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N64W 23N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF JAMAICA...TO 18N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 30N61W 28N62W 26N64W 24N67W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START TO THE SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA...AND IT WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST RIDGE THAT WILL RUN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 22N20W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W 27N14W 24N23W 23N29W 20N45W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 27N40W TO 24N53W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 30N30W 27N40W AND 26N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 28N26W 25N40W 25N48W 26N55W... BEYOND 30N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 28N26W 25N40W 25N48W 26N55W...BEYOND 30N60W. A BRANCH OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N36W TO 20N43W 17N52W 14N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 27N68W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ANDROS ISLAND...TO THE FLORIDA KEYS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...AND CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... AND EVENTUALLY TO EL SALVADOR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT