000 AXNT20 KNHC 180000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUE MONRING. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS W OF 94W THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT S OF 24N W OF FRONT OVERNIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W ALONG 8N21W TO 6N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N35W 2N41W TO NEAR 1N46W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AT 17/2100 UTC NEAR KEATON BEACH ALONG 26N87W 20N93W THEN S TO OVER S NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 94W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 28N83W 26N85W TO 24N89W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DENSE LOW/MID CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE WHERE SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER N TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF TUE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E ACROSS THE NW GULF ON TUE NIGHT AND WED BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED CLOSE TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC AND SW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 18N BETWEEN 79W- 86W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE REACHING FROM W/CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WED MORNING AND FROM E CUBA THE COAST OF HONDURAS THU MORNING. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE RELATIVELY CLEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING HISPANIOLA FAIR WEATHER TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD STILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHORT- LIVED SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO WELL BEYOND BERMUDA COVERING THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM VERO BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N77W AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 72W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 25N78W IN THE BAHAMAS TO 29N76W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N29W ALONG 28N41W TO 24N52W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS TONIGHT AND REACH FROM 32N73W TO E/CENTRAL CUBA ON TUE AND STALL FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W ON THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW