000
AXNT20 KNHC 171738
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING  
FROM SE MEXICO NEAR 21N97W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N87W. 
GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE PREVAILING TO THE NW OF FRONT 
UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                               
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N14W TO 8N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO 7N29W TO 4N34W TO 5N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-8N W OF 21W AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 33W-43W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...    

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. IS SUPPORTING 
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM SE MEXICO NEAR 21N97W TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE 
NEAR 30N87W GENERATING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF FRONT. 
10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL SW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM 24N-30N 
BETWEEN 83W-92W. A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E 
ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION AND GENERATING GALE FORCE 
WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N78W KEEPING THE 
BASIN FAIRLY STABLE. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER WHOLE 
AREA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N CAUSED BY THE PROXIMITY 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT 
CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM 
THE GULF. 
 
HISPANIOLA...   

MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY SE FLOW. 
WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON 
MAINLY CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. SIMILAR 
PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 36N27W TO 24N53W. 
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER TRANQUIL WEATHER REGIME SUPPORTED 
BY A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 38N53W. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING 
CONVECTION. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION.
                         
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA