000
AXNT20 KNHC 171124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NW GULF WATERS EXTENDS 
FROM SE LOUISIANA AT 29N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W MOVING 
SE. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT UNTIL EARLY 
TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                               
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 6N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 3N36W TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 
3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N 
BETWEEN 10W-20W...AND FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 33W-45W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...    

AS OF 0900 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA 
AT 29N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 22N98W MOVING SE. GALE FORCE 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SE OF 
FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT N OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS SE OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TO THE BASE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION AND 
GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 22N W OF 95W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA 
...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N76W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
HISPANIOLA...   

CURRENTLY...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ISOLATED 
SHOWERS IN SOME REGIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE REGION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR FAIR 
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N41W TO 24N60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. OF NOTE IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N46W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 37W-43W. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E  
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW 
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE SW N ATLC FROM 31N77W TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA AT 28N80W WITH CONVECTION. 
                         
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA