000 AXNT20 KNHC 170541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER NW GULF WATERS EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO MOVING SE. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 5N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 5N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 10W-30W...AND FROM 7N- 10N BETWEEN 40W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA AT 30N92W TO NE MEXICO AT 25N98W MOVING SE. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE SE OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-94W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS SE OF FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BASE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION AND GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 25N W OF 94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N- 13N BETWEEN 80W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 18N ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N76W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SPREAD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOME REGIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE REGION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N50W TO 27N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N43W TO 26N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 37W-43W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E AND MERGE WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONVECTION OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA