000 AXNT20 KNHC 170003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND TO GENERATE GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 7N22W 5N29W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N38W TO 6N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 3N-11N EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. WEST OF THE ITCZ...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N49W TO 5N50W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED ON THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO COVER GREAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE BASE OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. STARTS TO DIP IN THE NW BASIN AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 29N92W SW TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BETWEEN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE BASIN BY E-SE WIND FLOW ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER GREAT PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AS WELL AS COASTAL WATERS N OF 28N. DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT ALONG WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTING NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS STARTING MONDAY MORNING AND SUBSIDING TUESDAY MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES. CARIBBEAN SEA... EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 13N...MAINLY SHALLOW MOISTURE IS ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 80W. AN UPPER- TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHILE THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 13N W OF 78W. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WHILE E-SE WINDS OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY TUESDAY MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS PROVIDES FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOME REGIONS OF THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTED BY A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE REGION IS FORECAST TO FAVOR FAIR WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA...WHICH STARTS TO DISSIPATE ALONG 30N55W SW TO 27N64W 26N73W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N45W TO 24N57W. MODERATE MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 43W-50W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 18N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N38W. A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC TUESDAY MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR