000 AXNT20 KNHC 161736 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM 29N92W TO 26N97W PRODUCING GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF REACHING THE SW ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS EXTENDING TO THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 9N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 4N34W TO 7N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 15W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 15W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 MB LOW DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NW GULF CENTERED NEAR 28N96W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO SE TEXAS NEAR 31N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY N OF 28N...W OF 92W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS S OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A STRONG COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION AND PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY N OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 19N78W AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. A DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N AND THE ADJACENT WATERS N OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 13N. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE S CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. WITH THIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 59W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N54W TO 25N76W. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 30N49W TO 24N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 75 NM FROM THIS TROUGH. TO THE E...A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N38W KEEPING THE EASTERN ATLANTIC E OF 43W CONVECTION FREE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N48W TO 7N50W ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 45W- 51W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT AND PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 49W WILL ALSO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA