000 AXNT20 KNHC 160535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN EXITING ESE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 7N30W TO 8N45W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AT 8N48W AND CONTINUES TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 15W- 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM 29N95W TO 22N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT IS OVER N TEXAS MOVING S TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. THE NE GULF HAS SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N WHERE FAIR SKIES ARE NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THERE ARE NO CLOUDS ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. EXPECT A STRONG COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AT 18N79W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHERE A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS A TONGUE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO THE N BAHAMAS AT 26N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO 25N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N35W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 46W-49W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E MOSTLY VOID OF CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO ALSO MOVE E WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA