000 AXNT20 KNHC 160000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO 9N47W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 25W-35W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 37W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE NW PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED ON THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON THE NE CONUS EXTENDS SW INTO THE GULF...THUS PROVIDING E-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT EAST OF 93W. IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N95W TO 21N96W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED NEAR JAMAICA COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 21N W OF 80W. A TONGUE OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO JAMAICA AS WELL AS A WESTWARD MOVING BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN-CENTRAL BASIN SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS MOIST AIRMASS ALONG AN UPPER-TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SW TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO...VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS BY TUESDAY MORNING ENHANCING SHOWERS IN THIS REGION. HISPANIOLA... SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS A TONGUE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC FROM 30N67W SW TO 26N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N55W TO 26N60W. MODERATE MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN 50W-60W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE N OF 18N BEING ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N36W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DISSIPATES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR