000 AXNT20 KNHC 142339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W GULF AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NE MEXICO IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT OVER THE SW GULF. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SATURDAY...WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 TO 10 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 15W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND EXTENDS TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THEN ENTERING THE GULF NEAR 26N81W TO 23N88W...AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 23N88W TO 19N94W. NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AT AROUND 15-20 KT WHILE A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 5- 10 KT PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONTS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 23N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WHILE THE CURRENT STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N81W. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE W ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 18N79W TO 14N82W ENHANCING CONVECTION SW OF JAMAICA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 78W-83W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR 28N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE NW TIP OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 11N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH MOVES W WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI WITH NO CONVECTION. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXPECT THIS TROUGH TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HAITI THROUGH SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF AND E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 997 MB LOW NEAR 43N62W TO 27N80W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC NEAR 28N62W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE NW TIP OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 30N52W TO 25N58W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N36W PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 52W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA