000 AXNT20 KNHC 141800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE W GULF AND A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER NE MEXICO IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT CAUSING GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 KT OVER THE FAR SW GULF. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS OF 12 TO 17 FT ARE SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 14 FT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO NAPLES FLORIDA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR 27N82W TO 25N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES THROUGH 23N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. DENSE CLOUDS ARE NW OF THE FRONT S OF 28N DUE TO THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO W CUBA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF REACHING GALE FORCE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W. THIS RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE SW TIP OF HAITI TO 17N74W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N81W TO 13N84W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N E OF 70W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE AND THE W CARIBBEAN TROUGH MOVES W WITH CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN TIP OF HAITI GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HAITI THROUGH SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE N GULF AND E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N77W SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N52W TO 26N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF WITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N37W AND IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 55W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE TO NEAR 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO