000 AXNT20 KNHC 141139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT OVER THE FAR SW GULF. WINDS WILL BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY TODAY. SEAS ARE SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 13 FT THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N35W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 19W-33W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 11W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 34W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN TITUSVILLE AND SARASOTA ALONG 25N87W TO 22N91W WHERE IT IS BACKING AS A WARM FRONT ALONG 21N93W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO TO COMALCALCO MEXICO. DENSE CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT S OF 28N DUE TO THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OVER N TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE S OF 25N ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-82W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI NIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF REACHING GALE FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N81W COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NW VENEZUELA INCLUDING THE E TIP HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE SW TIP OF HAITI TO 17N75W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-75W. A SECOND STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N81W TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 11N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W THROUGH A SMALL 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N77W ALONG 11N81W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N BETWEEN 75W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE SECOND SOUTHERN SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS W THROUGH SAT MORNING. HISPANIOLA... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE SW TIP OF HAITI TO 17N75W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS CLEAR THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N77W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TITUSVILLE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N62W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N57W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION AND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N54W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N53W TO 25N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 56W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N38W. THE FAR W ATLC FRONT WILL STALL ALONG 27N/28N BY LATE SAT. THE FRONT WILL RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT LIFTING N OF THE BAHAMAS AND INTO NE FLORIDA BY SUN. THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW