000 AXNT20 KNHC 140539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH LATER MIDDAY FRI. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KT OVER THE FAR SW GULF. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY MIDDAY. SEAS HAVE REACHED TO 20 FT AND WILL SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 TO 13 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 12N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N25W TO 6N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N27W TO 9N34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 18W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO N OF A LINE FROM TAMPICO MEXICO TO TAMPA FLORIDA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND TAMPA ALONG 25N90W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN. DENSE CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT S OF 28N DUE TO THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. HOWEVER...DRY AIR ALOFT IS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF IN THE FRONTS WAKE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER N TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES COMBINE TO GIVE THE GULF SW FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE S OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-83W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRONT WILL REACH FROM FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI NIGHT. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SW GULF REACHING GALE FORCE THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N81W COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF 17N W OF 74W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NW VENEZUELA INCLUDING THE E TIP HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N80W TO OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR 10N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W ALONG 11N79W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS W THROUGH SAT MORNING. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W TO JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND EXTREME WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS CLEAR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE BY MORNING. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N78W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO OVER THE W ATLC BEYOND 32N67W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N60W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N56W TO 24N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 30N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 23N54W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 53W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N34W. THE FAR W ATLC FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N75W TO JUPITER FLORIDA FRI BEFORE STALLING ALONG 27N/28N BY LATE SAT. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER OVERNIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW