000 AXNT20 KNHC 132357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT HAS TIGHTENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE 35 KT OR GREATER FROM 22N-25N W OF 96W GRADUALLY EXTENDING S TO OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL BE BUILD FROM 12 FT TO A MAXIMUM OF 20 FT OVER THAT TIME FRAME. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 9N14W TO 5N20W TO 5N29W TO 2N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 18W- 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N81W. DUE TO THIS FEATURE...THE GULF CONTINUES WITH A SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N83W NEAR LEESBURG FLORIDA TO 19N93W NEAR TABASCO MEXICO. 20- 25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHER SPEEDS THE ADJACENT WATERS OF EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM BONITA SPRINGS FLORIDA TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO BY FRIDAY THEN BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N81W KEEPS THE W CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N67W TO 18N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 17N80W TO 10N80W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE AND THE SUPPORT OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N W OF 80W AFFECTING THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W ENHANCING CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. DESPITE THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC THROUGH 31N63W AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 41N54W TO 24N67W AND A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED WITHIN 10 NM FROM THESE BOUNDARIES. TO THE E...A STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 30N37W. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS N OF 22N E OF 50W. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 44W-48W AND 24W-29W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE W ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA EXTENDING FROM 37N70W TO JUPITER FLORIDA BY FRIDAY THEN BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND W ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA