000 AXNT20 KNHC 131803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 95W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 29N83W TO 26N91W TO 18N94W. EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA 10N14W...TO 5N20W 5N29W 2N36W AND 1N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 17W AND 34W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N85W. MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N92W 25N86W 26N81W...COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THROUGH 32N80W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...CURVING TO 25N92W...TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 18N97W...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FRONT IS DENSE AND SHALLOW WITH LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 29N81W 24N90W 19N91W. POSSIBLE IN THE MULTILAYERED MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 19N94W 22N94W 25N87W 27N83W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W...TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN 12 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF... KGVX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL HAS BEEN HAVING VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KHQI...KVBS...KGBK...KVQT WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...KGHB...KEIR...KSPR... KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY...KDLP...AND KMIS WITH A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N61W AND 21N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N64W 23N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF JAMAICA...TO 18N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N63W 28N67W 26N70W...TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 30N61W 28N62W 26N64W 24N67W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W WESTWARD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 64W EASTWARD. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH...THAT EXTENDS FROM A 19N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO 8N60W IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W... COVERING COASTAL AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF GUYANA... VENEZUELA...AND TRINIDAD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.51 IN TRINIDAD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 80W/81W FROM 10N TO 16N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W... ACROSS THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER...BEYOND 9N84W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. ...HISPANIOLA... A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N61W AND 21N62W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W 27N64W 23N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF JAMAICA...TO 18N79W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 30N61W 28N62W 26N64W 24N67W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO WESTERN JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 71W AND 75W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 17N85W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY MOVES TO JAMAICA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL REMAIN ON TOP OF CUBA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. THIS IS RELATED TO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN- TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO 27N25W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 27N25W TO 27N40W AND 26N49W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N52W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N52W TO 13N55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO 8N60W IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 40W AND 56W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT