000 AXNT20 KNHC 130604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING NEAR 13/1200 UTC THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE 35 KT OR GREATER STARTING FRI MORNING FROM 22N-25N W OF 95W GRADUALLY EXTENDING S TO OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL BE BUILD FROM 13 FT TO A MAX OF 17 FT OVER THAT TIME FRAME. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N20W 2N28W TO 2N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 47W FROM 11N-16N WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 43W-49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 16W- 29W AND N OF ITCZ FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 29W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NORTH CAROLINA. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO NEW ENGLAND NARROWING OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF AT 13/0300 UTC ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 26N94W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. ABUNDANT LINGERING MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE SE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. FRONT WILL REACH FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA THROUGH 22N94W TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO THU NIGHT AND WEAKEN FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO W BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN GULF WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 24N TO VERACRUZ LATE THU THROUGH EARLY FRI. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF 15N W OF 80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA E OF 70W INCLUDING THE E TIP HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC AND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO 18N80W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N79W TO OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ALONG 11N80W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SHIFT E AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS W THROUGH SAT MORNING. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO 18N80W IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF W HAITI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY LESSEN THE CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N66W TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION OVER BERMUDA ALONG 27N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N71W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 18N55W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 51W-57W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM 30N49W TO 26N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 32N44W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA THU NIGHT REACHING FROM 32N76W TO STUART FLORIDA BY FRI AND FROM 32N69W TO PORT EVERGLADES BY SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW