000 AXNT20 KNHC 130003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING...13/1200 UTC. A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FROM 30N83W TO 23N95W TO 19N95W. NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 95W WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT IN A N SWELL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 04N39W. ISOLATED LIGHT/MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-09N BETWEEN 10W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO NEW ENGLAND IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM 22N98W TO 30N87W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM OF THE BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 24N AND W OF 86W. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN S OF 24N CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. 10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND OF THE FRONT WHILE VARIABLE WINDS OF 05-10 KT ARE NOTICED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO REACH THE AREA FROM VERACRUZ MEXICO TO NORTH FLORIDA S OF TALLAHASSEE BY THURSDAY AND FROM THE S BAY OF CAMPECHE TO TAMPA FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FAR W GULF WILL REACH GALE FORCE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 23N TO VERACRUZ ON THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W EXTENDS TO 73W. FAIR WEATHER PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT S OF 16N WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 16N75W TO 09N79W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 77W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 21N72W TO 19N80W...AND AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 19N80W TO 17N83W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO ANY OF THESE FEATURES. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. WINDS ARE NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10 KT BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TRADES PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT AROUND 05-10 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT REMAINS W OF THE ISLAND WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING E KEEPING THE ISLAND FAIRLY DRY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 67W EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 35N67W TO 21N72W AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THAT POINT INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM 33N69W TO 23N77W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N58W TO 22N58W. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N47W KEEPING THE AREA CONVECTION FREE MAINLY N OF 25N. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 25W-49W. NORTHERLY FLOW AT AROUND 10 KT PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY FLOW IS NOTICED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA