000 AXNT20 KNHC 120539 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR 12N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N24W 6N41W TO 8N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 13N48W TO 9N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N41W TO 16N48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 43W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER N GUATEMALA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTH CAROLINA SUPPORTING A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF AT 12/0300 UTC ACROSS LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY ALONG 28N94W TO JUST S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO NEAR 25N99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE N GULF BY THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRONT WILL REACH FROM MOBILE BAY TO TUXPAN MEXICO BY WED THEN FROM APALACHICOLA BAY TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THU AND FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 76W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF 12N W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DIPS S OVER NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 76W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A DYING STATIONARY FRONT THAT BEGINS OVER CUBA NEAR 21N76W ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. THIS FRONT IS EMBEDDED WITH DRY STABLE AIR...THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W ALONG 16N75W TO 11N79W. LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS W. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES W ATLC/CARIBBEAN FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W ALONG 16N75W TO 11N79W. LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER HAITI AND PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL BECOME A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT DRIFTS E ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THIS TROUGH PLUS ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLANDS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY TAPERING OFF ON THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N73W TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N71W ALONG 25N72W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21N76W WHERE IT BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N70W ACROSS HAITI NEAR 20N72W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-74W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N38W ALONG 22N50W 17N55W THEN S TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N56W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N54W TO 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 50W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 23N44W TO 25N51W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N46W. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E AND REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE THU. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND REACH FROM 32N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW