000 AXNT20 KNHC 112359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND OVER AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 09N10W AND CONTINUES TO 07N17W TO 08N33W. THE BOUNDARY RESUMES W OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N35W TO 08N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N- 17N BETWEEN 29W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SE CONUS SUPPORTING A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 27N86W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N DUE TO THIS FEATURE. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS THE GULF W OF 86W WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW IS E OF 86W. TO THE W OF THE SURFACE HIGH...ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS MOVING FROM NE MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ACROSS THE NW GULF AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES OVER THE TEXAS COASTLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO BY THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA IS ALSO INFLUENCING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE AREA RAIN-FREE. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND EXTENDING TO THE CARIBBEAN FROM 21N78W TO 15N82W. TO THE E OF THIS FEATURE...A PAIR OF TROUGHS ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST ONE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING TO HISPANIOLA AND THE CARIBBEAN FROM 20N73W TO 15N73W. THE SECOND ONE IS FROM 15N75W TO 10N77W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM OF EACH AXES. THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND THE SUPPORT AT UPPER LEVELS OF A DIFFLUENT FLOW ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 11N. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 69W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES E ACROSS E CUBA. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM 20N73W TO 15N73W. A DIFFLUENT FLOW W OF THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY S OF 21N BETWEEN 69W-72W AFFECTING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E ACROSS E CUBA. WITH THIS...ISOLATED CONVECTION COULD BE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO NE CUBA IS SUPPORTING A 1007 SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N75W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS N FROM 29N75W AND MEETS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM 31N73W TO 22N76W. THESE BOUNDARIES PAIRED WITH A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 20N- 40N BETWEEN 63W-70W. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTEND TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...KEEPING FAIR WEATHER PREVAILING N OF 10N BETWEEN 48W-63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 25N52W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE NEAR THE ITCZ: ONE FROM 12N45W TO 08N45W AND THE OTHER FROM 11N33W TO 07N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE FIRST TROUGH...MAINLY WITHIN 100 NM FROM THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER AS A STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH PREVAILS NEAR 32N42W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE N WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING E BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA BY THURSDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA