000 AXNT20 KNHC 111805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 7N20W 8N35W AND 8N46W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36W/37W FROM 5N TO 11N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 47W/48W FROM 5N TO 12N. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N44W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE ITCZ. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND FROM 5N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF FRENCH GUIANA...AND GUYANA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N10W 3N20W...AND WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N20W 7N30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BECOMING WESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE WIND FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN/BAHAMAS-TO-CUBA-AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 90W EASTWARD. MOISTURE AT DIFFERENT LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF TEXAS AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...CONTINUING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...SOUTHEASTWARD...TO THE BORDER OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA THAT IS NEAR 17N91W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KGVX...KGRY...KSPR...KMDJ...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AND IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM PALACIOS TEXAS TOWARD THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES...AND TO THE BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...AT LEAST WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AT THIS MOMENT. CLOUD CEILINGS RANGE FROM 6000 FEET TO 7000 FEET IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS FOUND NEAR MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N76W 10N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM COASTAL PANAMA AND COLOMBIA TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W AND BEYOND 9N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE 31N77W-TO-WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WESTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE SAME 31N77W-TO-WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE 23N44W 9N64W TROUGH AND AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. SOME MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MIXED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.17 IN TRINIDAD...AND 0.14 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME...AND END UP PASSING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THAT MOMENT. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL SPAN THE AREA. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N77W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND INTO THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N78W...TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BEYOND 32N79W. A COLD FRONT THAT IS PART OF THE SAME FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 73W/74W...FROM 14N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 27N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER IS WITHIN 420 NM TO 600 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N38W 23N47W 14N56W 9N64W. THIS CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N51W 8N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N53W 17N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 43W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 28W AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N11W IN MAURITANIA...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 29N19W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N36W...BEYOND A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT