000 AXNT20 KNHC 111126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N23W 9N41W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 33N-40W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 8N W OF 8W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-33W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 47W-50W...AND FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 43W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER GUATEMALA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS THE GULF TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND SUPPORTING A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 29N85W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE N GULF W OF SURFACE HIGH. THIS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 23N W OF 90W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND MOST OF THE GULF GIVING THE NW GULF HIGH CLOUDS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CLEAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS TONIGHT REACHING FROM THE SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS BY LATE WED THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO BY LATE THU AND FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N83W TO 15N70W WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC DIPS S OVER CUBA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N74W OVER THE SW TIP OF HAITI THEN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W ALONG 10N78W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 74W-77W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 15N74W OVER THE SW TIP OF HAITI THEN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT W OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E WITH A POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PRECEDING. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI WED BEFORE DISSIPATING THU. THIS COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 30N78W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER CUBA W OF 72W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS SUPPORTING A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 28N79W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N TO 32N79W WHERE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 28N77W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N62W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE E GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 68W-74W AND FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 66W-71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 22N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-74W AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 71W-75W. A SECOND LARGER UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 21N46W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N52W TO 18N54W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N- 25N BETWEEN 44W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N38W. THE W ATLC SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N OF THE AREA TODAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM 32N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THIS EVENING WEAKENING AS IT MOVES E AND REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY WED EVENING THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE THU. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND REACH FROM 32N76W TO CAPE CANAVERAL LATE THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW