000 AXNT20 KNHC 110548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 10N15W TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N27W 8N41W TO 6N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 30W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED ALONG THE S COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE SE CONUS NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER AND SUPPORTING A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N87W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE NW GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE E GULF WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE FAR W GULF GIVING THE NW GULF HIGH CLOUDS WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CLEAR TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS TUE NIGHT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE SW GULF WED NIGHT AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N TO 70W THEN NW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC DIPS S OVER CUBA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION WITH THIS FRONT DUE TO THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N W OF 75W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM SE CUBA NEAR BAYAMO ACROSS W TIP OF JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-75W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA N OF 9N W OF 74W DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA AND S OF PANAMA. THE IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W-75W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WED NIGHT W OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHILE THE N PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT E WITH A POSSIBLE PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH PRECEDING. THESE FEATURES WILL APPROACH HAITI WED BEFORE DISSIPATING THU. THIS COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N78W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO OVER CUBA W OF 73W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N70W ALONG 32N76W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N79W AND CONTINUING S ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ALONG 25N78W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N62W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO THE E TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 71W-75W...FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 68W-75W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 30N BETWEEN 67W-80W. A SECOND LARGER UPPER LOW IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 19N47W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 43W-47W AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 44W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N40W. THE W ATLC SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT REACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE THEN BECOMING DIFFUSE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW