000 AXNT20 KNHC 102348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 09N13W TO 09N19W TO 08N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 08N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N25W 08N35W TO 07N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 29W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE SE CONUS...SUPPORTING A STATIONARY 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N87W. SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 87W IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT WHILE 10-15 KT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS E OF 87W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING SW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ON THE SW ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS TO CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 23N80W TO 16N86W. ABUNDANT LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 71W-77W NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 20N75W TO 12N75W. TO THE S OF THIS ACTIVITY...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 12N AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN BASIN RANGING FROM 10-15 KT W OF 77W WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE TO THE E OF 77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE E ACROSS CUBA WHILE DISSIPATING. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL AMERICA BY THURSDAY. HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN AFFECTING HISPANIOLA. THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE TROUGH W OF THE ISLAND ENHANCING MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE SW N ATLC...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WAS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT N OF 32N...AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N69W TO 32N76W...CONNECTING TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N79N...TO 23N80W. THE FRONT CONTINUES S ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ENDING IN HONDURAS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PAIRED WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION S OF 32N BETWEEN 69W-81W. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N46W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 45W-49W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES NEAR 33N40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE LOW OVER THE SW ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING NE ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WHILE DISSIPATING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA