000 AXNT20 KNHC 101805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N13W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W 7N40W TO 7N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-23W AND FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 28W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND THE NE CONUS...THUS SUPPORTING AN ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 45N65W...A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 39N44W AND A 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N91W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT E OF 90W AND E-SE WIND FLOW IN THE SAME RANGE W OF 90W. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHICH ALONG REMNANT SHALLOW MOISTURE LINKED TO THE COLD FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EASTERN SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN FROM LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTEND SW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...THUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ON THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 21N80W AND THEN ALONG 18N82W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON THE CENTRAL BASIN...ABUNDANT LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUEL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 20N73W TO 11N73W. IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SIMILAR CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 13N E OF 81W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE WESTERN BASIN RANGING FROM 5-10 KT EAST OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 78W...INCREASING TO 15 KT WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT BY WED MORNING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA THU AFTERNOON. HISPANIOLA... ABUNDANT LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI AS WELL AS ADJACENT SOUTHERN WATERS. THIS RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD TO CENTRAL AMERICA THU AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CONUS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC...EXTENDING SW TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF 29N AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1012 MB LOW ALONG 29N79W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N79W SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TO NORTHERN HONDURAS. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 23N W OF 70W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-24N BETWEEN 40W- 48W. THE LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF 30N DURING TUESDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR