000 AXNT20 KNHC 100505 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 7N30W TO 6N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 39W...AND FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W ACROSS W CUBA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N95W IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT W OF 85W. E OF 85W...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY EXIT THE BASIN WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUBSIDENCE SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA AT 23N82W TO 19N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS COMBINING WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WEAK STEERING FLOW IS PRODUCING VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. E TRADE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVER THE E CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW BASIN NEAR THE COLD FRONT. HISPANIOLA... DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR 30N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N73W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 24N W OF 76W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 21N AND 24N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LARGE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N31W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N45W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 225 NM OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NEAR THE UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO