000 AXNT20 KNHC 090555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 6N35W TO 6N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN 10W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 29W AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE E GULF NEAR 25W85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF AT 22N91W AND THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 18N93W. NW TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. S TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXTEND UP TO 200 NM N OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 100 NM OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SE WITH SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF...FL...YUCATAN...AND W CUBA. CARIBBEAN SEA... 5 TO 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS COVER THE W CARIBBEAN. 10 TO 15 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HAITI NEAR 20N73W TO 12N71N. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THIS TROUGH. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN A WESTERN ATLANTIC UPPER LOW NEAR 24N66W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER HISPANIOLA ARE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING NE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE FRONT UP TO 250 NM N OF THE FRONT W OF 75W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMAS AND NE FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE PRESENCE OF A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N42W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 37W AND 45W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 60W AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO