000
AXNT20 KNHC 082350
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                  
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N15W TO 10N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES TO 5N23W TO 8N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 
4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-13N 
BETWEEN 10W-30W...AND FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 32W-40W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA 
AT 26N80W TO A 1009 MB LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N85W. A 
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 22N92W AND BENDS 
TO 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF FLORIDA N OF FRONT
...THE E GULF N OF FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF FRONT OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE. IN ADDITION... LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE TEXAS COAST N OF 27N. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE 
N OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 5-10 
KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
THE NE GULF N OF 25N AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE W GULF N OF 
21N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO 
THE W ATLANTIC AND NW CARIBBEAN WITH CONVECTION OVER S 
FLORIDA...W CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N62W TO 
13N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THIS CONVECTION IS IS BEING ENHANCED BY 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF 
PUERTO RICO AT 22N68W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N 
MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 

HISPANIOLA...                                 
                  
PRESENTLY HISPANIOLA HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER 
THE ENTIRE ISLAND.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 
31N66W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG 
THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF 26N W OF 77W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 57W-67W MOSTLY DUE 
TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 
55W-60W TO INCLUDE BARBADOS. A LARGE 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 37N29W. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION OVER BARBADOS TO MOVE INTO 
THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 
                                  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA