000 AXNT20 KNHC 081143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 5N30W TO 6N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 6N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 20W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 24N89W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW AT 24N95W THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 18N95W. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW GULF ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TO WITHIN 50 NM OF THE N GULF COAST W OF 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT E OF 86W. E TO NE SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KT ARE NORTH OF THE FRONT. VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 5 TO 10 KT N TO NE WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 10-15 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS UPPER LOW IS INTERACTING WITH A MODERATELY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 21N63W TO 15N65W. THIS TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W INCLUDING MUCH OF THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ONGOING CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE E CARIBBEAN...LESSER ANTILLES...AND PUERTO RICO. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER HISPANIOLA AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING ACROSS HAITI AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N66W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N65W TO 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION. A LARGE 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 37N32W AND COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW E OF 55W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N37W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONVECTION. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA AND SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC S OF 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO