000 AXNT20 KNHC 080548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 7N30W TO 7N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST W OF THE AFRICAN COAST FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W TO 24N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N95W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N95W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 28N99W WITH ZONAL FLOW AND A SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE GULF JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 10-15 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 19N74W INTO THE W ATLANTIC. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 110 NM OF THIS TROUGH. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N64W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC TO NEAR 19N63W. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH WHERE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W INCLUDING MUCH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS DEEP CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR OVER 200 NM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE W ATLANTIC WITH ONGOING DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N68W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO NEAR 19N63W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 14N TO 23N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A LARGE 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 38N32W AND COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER E OF 55W BETWEEN 12N AND 31N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO