000 AXNT20 KNHC 072325 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N15W TO 9N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 8N30W TO 6N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 28W-34W...AND FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 34W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 25N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE W GULF AT 25N95W AND BENDS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 85W. IN ADDITION... LOW OVERCAST CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE TEXAS COAST. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 30N102W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 16N97W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N93W WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N64W TO 14N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 60W-68W. THIS CONVECTION IS IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AT 18N71W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ALSO EXPECT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OPEN TO A TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO WITH DIFFLUENCE SHIFTING TO THE ATLANTIC NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT 26N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE N BAHAMAS. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO 23N74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE TROUGH FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 61W-69W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 73W IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION. A LARGE 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 38N34W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FRONT TO BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA