000 AXNT20 KNHC 071742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INLAND IN AFRICA WITHOUT REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE ITCZ PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 8N17W 8N29W 8N37W AND 5N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N41W AND 10N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 23W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING IN THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.A....INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 32N74W...TO 29N75W...AND 26N75W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND TO 25N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N94W...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W...AND THEN CURVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W WESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N68W 26N72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD...FROM 25N NORTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD...AND FROM 25N SOUTHWARD FROM 92W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.50 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MEXICO 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N102W...TO 19N97W IN MEXICO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 1.00 IN VERACRUZ IN MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN...COVER MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN REACH THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N65W...CUTTING ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...TO 14N70W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 17N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OFF THE COAST OF HAITI. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N68W 17N65W 19N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 70W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N SOUTHWARD... INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.90 IN TRINIDAD...0.23 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.16 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD TO LAND BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N73W...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ENCOMPASSES HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 70W WESTWARD. ONLY THAT PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W IS NOT BEING AFFECTED BY THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN BARAHONA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE WHOLE FEATURE OPENING INTO A TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL END UP BEING MORE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT 17N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE WHOLE FEATURE OPENING INTO A TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL END UP BEING DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AROUND 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEAVING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE 700 MB GFS MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER DISSIPATES AFTER 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N32W TO 25N36W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N36W TO 22N39W... EVENTUALLY FEEDING INTO THE 19N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH FEATURE THAT IS REFERENCED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ ITCZ SECTION. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 31N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N40W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER... THAT IS NEAR 38N35W...THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N53W AND 20N60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W...NOT COUNTING THE 33N30W TO 31N35W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT