000 AXNT20 KNHC 071122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 09N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 07N29W TO 09N39W TO 07N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-16N BETWEEN 20W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB LOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N96N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N. 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF TO 19N96W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 16N95W IS KEEPING THE WESTERN GULF UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SOUTH FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE AREA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HAITI NEAR 18N72W REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH LOCATED FROM 17N67W TO 14N69W. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING THIS TROUGH AND ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 64W-72W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION. SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 995 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 43N69W TO THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS 85 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N BETWEEN 53W-81W. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 28N72W. TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 29N BETWEEN 62W- 71W DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 71W. A BROAD 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N40W. A COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N37W TO 39N09W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM FROM THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING SE ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE SUPPORTING THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA