000 AXNT20 KNHC 070532 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 09N21W TO 07N38W TO 05N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 17W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB LOW CONTINUES OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N96N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE COASTLINE AFFECTION THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 29N. 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A SECONDARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF TO 20N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 17N94W IS KEEPING THE WESTERN GULF UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SOUTH FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPENDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN KEEPING THE AREA UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW CONTINUES CENTERED S OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W. AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO...ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 64W-72W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WHOLE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE EDGE OF THIS TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 53W-81W. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 25N74W. TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-71W DUE TO UPPER- LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 72W. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N41W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 31N38W TO 36N36W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO SOUTH FLORIDA ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA