000
AXNT20 KNHC 070021
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 
                                  
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 
8N30W TO 6N47W TO 6N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-7N 
BETWEEN 13W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 26W-37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 37W-47W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 26N96N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AT 31N86W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 
21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 20 KT 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 83W. IN THE UPPER AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W TEXAS NEAR 31N105W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W WITH 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT 
TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 24N96W TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE WITH CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... AND 
PUERTO RICO...FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS CONVECTION IS 
MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
CENTERED JUST S OF HAITI AT 18N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N 
MOSTLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLAND. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                   

PRESENTLY THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO 
SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE ISLAND.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N71W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE LOW CENTER TO THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS WELL E OF THE TROUGH FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 62W-68W...MOSTLY 
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
AXIS ALONG 70W. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N44W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N16W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO SOUTH 
FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 
                                  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA