000 AXNT20 KNHC 061043 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 09N31W TO 06N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 18W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERS THE BASIN AND EXTENDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN EXTENDING NE FROM A 1017 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N97W. THIS BOUNDARY TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT FROM 28N96W TO A 1020 MB LOW OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 135 NM FROM THESE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1023 MB HIGH OVER SE CONUS NEAR 30N83W. EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN AT AROUND 10-15 KT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND STALL S OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR 16N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION N OF 17N BETWEEN 69W-74W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 25N70W TO 20N72W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS SE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 18N65W TO 12N69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 67W-70W. TO THE S...THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 76W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORED S OF HAITI IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA COUPLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 27N SUPPORTING A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 25N70W. THIS SURFACE LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N64W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 30N64W TO 34N46W WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT FROM 34N46W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110 NM FROM THE BOUNDARIES. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 32W-37W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 39N47W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED N OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING W WHILE DISSIPATING. THE TROUGH ALONG THIS LOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA