000 AXNT20 KNHC 060540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 10N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N23W TO 07N35W TO 07N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 05N- 08N BETWEEN 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERS THE BASIN AND EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N74W INTO THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N98W INTO THE NW GULF FROM 27N97W TO 29N95W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 90W-97W. EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AT AROUND 10-15 KT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF WHERE IT WILL STALL LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND STALL S OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI NEAR 17N73W ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 69W- 75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 LOW CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 22N68W TO 13N69W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 66W-69W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND PANAMA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 12N W OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORED S OF HAITI IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS AND AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS COUPLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 28N SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N73W TO 31N62W. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 22N68W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N66W TO 19N68W AND THEN INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 60W-68W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 31W-39W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N52W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A TROUGH AND MOVE W ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED N OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA