000 AXNT20 KNHC 060005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 9N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N34W 8N50W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 20W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COVERS THE GULF TO OVER THE S-SE CONUS...PORTION OF THE FAR W ATLC AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLC TO A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N73W INTO THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE ARE STREAMING NE TO CONVERGE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 29N95W SW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N98W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE WEST OF 86W. WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN ARE FROM THE SE IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL THURSDAY MORNING. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF THE BASIN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION FROM A STATIONARY FRONT TO A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND STALLING BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING TO 13N73W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N60W SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE N OF 10N BETWEEN 64W- 72W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 13N W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER N OF THE AREA IN THE SW ATLC. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE ANCHORED SOUTH OF HAITI ALONG WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND COUPLED WITH THE LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC WHILE THE ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NORTHWARD TO NEAR 32N AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 30N57W ALONG 23N66W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WHERE IT STARTS DISSIPATING SW INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 280 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE W AS A TROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BY THU. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE N ON THU AND BE N OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL W/ATLC THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR