000 AXNT20 KNHC 051745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED NOV 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N38W 10N55W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SW AFRICA FROM SIERRA LEONE E TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF TO OVER THE SE CONUS...W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO 1027 MB HIGH ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST INTO THE GULF ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE GIVING THE GULF CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPING AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE S TEXAS COAST THU AND THU NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR 25N96W THEN S TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY FRI. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HAITI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W SW TO 14N75W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 68W-75W WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 65W-73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA NEAR 9N78W ALONG 10N81W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 9N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA S OF 14N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT COMPLETELY TODAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC/E CARIBBEAN AND ANCHORED OVER HAITI IS GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER HAITI. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD GIVE PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING MAINLY THROUGH TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 77W. THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER HAITI ALONG 26N71W TO BEYOND 32N67W AND IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION FROM A COLD FRONT NEAR 31N55W ALONG 27N63W 21N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 18N68W WHERE IT DISSIPATES IN THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 25N58W ALONG 21N63W TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 17N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 58W-62W AND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ABOUT 380 NM SW OF THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE W AS A TROUGH WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BY THU. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE N ON THU AND BE N OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL W/ATLC THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW