000 AXNT20 KNHC 051120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 11N18W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 06N25W TO 07N38W TO 08N46W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 06N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 23W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N93W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN THIS EVENING ENHANCING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE SW GULF EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM 13N75W TO 19N65W THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 14N BETWEEN 66W-74W...AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE WESTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FROM 18N68W TO 19N67W THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM FROM THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT FOR MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH SOMETIME TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING OVER PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO LA MONA PASSAGE. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS E HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N65W TO 31N53W AND CONTINUES N INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 19N67W TO 26N62W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 125 NM NW FROM THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N-17N BETWEEN 26W- 41W. EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH TODAY WHICH WILL SHIFT W-NW DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SW ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA