000 AXNT20 KNHC 050535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N17W TO 11N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N28W TO 08N45W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 06N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 25W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF NEAR 20N93W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN. A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N76W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. DRY AIR PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW BASIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY ENHANCING CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE SW GULF EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. TO THE E...AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM 13N75W TO 18N65W THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 58W-67W...AFFECTING EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THIS FRONT FROM 17N69W TO 19N69W THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-70W AFFECTING EASTERN HISPANIOLA. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PUERTO RICO AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY E OF PUERTO RICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS E HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRANSITION TO A SURFACE TROUGH N OF THE CARIBBEAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS INTO A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N53W TO 18N66W THEN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM 25N64W ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N69W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 135 NM FROM THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO A SURFACE TROUGH BY EARLY WED WHICH WILL SHIFT W-NW DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NE OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SW ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA