000 AXNT20 KNHC 041046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC AT 12N17W AND CONTINUES TO 06N30W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N30W TO 06N34W...THEN RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 08N41W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 07N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N...W OF 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-13N BETWEEN 15W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CONUS NEAR 32N82W AND EXTENDING TO THE GULF PRODUCING 10 TO 15 KT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT N OF 24N AND W OF 92W...WHERE ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION IS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS. SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF BY MID-WEEK ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC NEAR 21N65W ACROSS THE HISPANIOLA AT 19N70W AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN AT 15N83W. NE SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST FROM 15N84W TO 12N84W. THIS BOUNDARY HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS S OF 15N...W OF 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA EXTENDING FROM 18N69W TO 16N71W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT SE WATERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-68W PRODUCT OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO DIG S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TO A SHEAR LINE. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE ISLAND WHILE DISSIPATING TO A SHEAR LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N56W TO 20N67W. N TO NW SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW OF THE FRONT WHILE 15-20 KT E-SE FLOW PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE FRONT. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N52W TO 24N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N35W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 50W N OF 26N. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 21N47W ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 41W-46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 14N35W TO 06N37W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-21N BETWEEN 31W-39W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N55W TO 20N65W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RIVERA