000 AXNT20 KNHC 032329 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N77W TO 9N76W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SSMI TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NORTH NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. ...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC AT 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 6N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N28W TO 8N36W. THE ITCZ RESUMES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 8N39W AND CONTINUES TO 8N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 19W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N84W PRODUCING 10 TO 15 KT E TO SE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH AN AXIS ALONG 94W DOMINATES THE GULF WITH SUBSIDENCE. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF ON WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA AT 18N72W AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TO N NICARAGUA AT 14N83W. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ALONG WITH NW SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT...ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 10N W OF 80W. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. A W MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N69W TO 12N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO DIG S INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TO A SHEAR LINE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES W WITH SOME CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... A FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE ISLAND WHILE DISSIPATING TO A SHEAR LINE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N59W TO HISPANIOLA AT 19N70W. RESIDUAL BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ALONG WITH N TO NW SURFACE WINDS OF 20 KT...ARE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NW OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N35W. THIS HIGH IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC E OF 50W N OF 22N. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 21N42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E TO 30N55W TO 20N65W WITH CONVECTION MAINLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO